Ten years from now, will more people be listening to vinyl or CDs?

CD's....if that is the choice. I know I will be. I got to many not to listen to them.

 

I think CD's could be like vinyl is today. Young folks coming over to a house with a huge CD collection, never having seen CD's before in their entire life: "Wow, look at these, how do you play them?"

Then, if you have the right CD pressings/masterings, they will go: "I can't believe how real that sounds, it's like having the artist play in your living room!"

Just a thought.

I certainly can answer the original question for me personally. It will be CD's, simply because I don't have vinyl and am not planning to getting back into it (mainly for reasons like space, convenience, investments, etc.).

I haven an iPod but much prefer listening to CD's. I listen to whole albums anyway, so the convenience of a shuffle function is not important to me.

 

Vinyl survived its 80's obituary notice, rebounded, and will probably continue to be available new, but out-selling digital media? . . . I still buy the occasional LP and wouldn't like to see it disappear . . .

As for CDs -- ignoring the lousy mastering and all of the other bureaucratically-induced failures, the compact disc is an amazingly accurate, simple-to-use music format. Its convenience is, at the moment, still unbeatable. The expensive Internet/computer/server/IPod model of mechanical rituals won't seem so innovative if it has to drag on for another 10 years, hi-rez or not . . . It will take some revolutionary designing to compete with the user-friendliness of the CD . . .

 

Vinyl. It has already passed through obsolescence and is now a niche analog format market. CDs have been obsolete as a digital storage medium for years and are just hanging on. I think they will be about are relevant as floppies are today. They dominant formats will be other digital media

 

Durable little suckers too. Leaving aside the small handful that succumbed to rot. A squazzilion discs from nearly 30 years of production are as still playable and offer the same quality they had as new. Not like now, where everything is supplanted in 2 years time.

 

Generally agree.

The sun is setting on the CD format. I just bought a new dedicated CD player and some CD storage racks because I think these will start to become scarce as we move forward.

I'm also fleshing out my CD collection while titles are still in print.

 

The orbituary notices for the physical CD remind me a lot of what was said for vinyl. It was declared dead many many times, but it stayed around and is now stronger than it was 10 years ago.

I assume the same will happen with CD's, at least on a similar level (volume wise). Of course the volume will be reduced quite a bit in the next years, cut in half and then even more. But it will not go away completely.

There are so many people who like to listen to music who do not even have a computer and don't know how to operate one. iPods are only convenient if you have the whole computer thing already in place and know how to handle it.

 

the problem is that CDs don't offer any significant advantages over downloadable media. vinyl trumps CDs because of often superior mastering and artwork. that's a large part of the reason those of us who didn't jump on this so-called vinyl fad on the last few years never stopped listening to and buying records.

most of the public couldn't care less about the effects of compression on digital audio and simply cannot distinguish between 192kbps mp3s and FLAC. for this reason, your run of the mill compressed audio files will eventually be equivalent to CDs for most of the public (it's already that way for an ever-increasing percentage of the public). have you seen the Beatles album sales on iTunes? do you think any of those people are audiophiles? iTunes would scarcely exist if most of the world cared about sound quality.

when you accept that most people will view the digital file as the equal of a CD, why would the CD retain its appeal? they're not exactly the most durable media, and it's far easier for the average user to play mp3s than to burn CDs. moreover, the availability of downloadable media players is expanding rapidly - as someone else pointed out, all new cars built come with the capability to play mp3s in some capacity but fewer manufacturers are even including CD players. Mp3 players are becoming more idiot proof and don't even require a computer or computer skills to manipulate.

so, I guess I'm wondering, where is the CD resurgence going to come from?

 

Well said and worth repeating.

But here's one thought. When we move into the world of non-physical distribution, I wonder how comprehensive will it be?

For example, there are many different mixes and versions of old 45s, etc. And over the years, some have showed up in this obscure German compilation CD, and that obscure Japanese CD, etc. This was largely due to the fact that the ownership of music was so distributed and scattered.

With Internet music distribution, I would imagine it being much more centralized (ala iTunes) and licensing working on a more global scale. Which may well mean one source. Which might well mean that there's less likelihood for such variety of tracks to be made available (it simply wouldn't be cost effective except for the biggest names in the history of music).

So perhaps (and I say this with great doubt, but just circling that trace of possibility), CDs may well be the last official medium where such comprehensive sources of tracks were gathered and distributed at this level of accessibility. As an "archiver" or completist, you would actually be able to find and afford so many different re-issues and variations of tracks - while the vinyl records disappear and become more and more scarce (and no one will be repressing those obscure 45s) and the online distribution focuses on making a central release to be definitive.

 

Guys, this isn't 2003 anymore.

SACDs are dead.

Come on.

Is this guy fun or what?

 

Good point. I don't do downloads, but I have heard complaints that several hit recordings, especially older songs, aren't always available in their original version. Some appear to be different versions, remixes or even re-recordings. The very idea that you're not sure which version you're going to get when you're downloading a tune has always bugged me. And I'm not even talking about different masterings here. So yes, in that way CDs could be a saving grace for anyone searching for a particular version of a song.

But you're right on the other end of the scale too - this notion won't save the CD as an important medium in the near future. It may only be of interest for suckers like us.

 

10 years from now? Most people today don't listen to CDs or vinyl. The listening habits of people on the Hoffman forum don't represent the populace.

Re-read the OP. I think they will be equal, in that neither will have more listeners than the other. 10 years is a long time. 10 years ago, I used to see cassettes in stores like Sam Goody, Disc-o-rama, Coconuts etc. It was not uncommon to see walkmans. They were fairly common. We have to remember, 10 years ago, there were no iPods. I remember this, because on 9/11, I lost my discman trying to stay alive on my way home. A little over a month later, the iPod launched. I bought one. People thought I was a magician with all that music in my pocket. Really, people would stare at it. We've come a long way in 10 years.

 

Yes "documentation" is important, and not something you get with a "download". I prefer to have the c.d. with information regarding who produced and mastered the music. Do downloads provide credible information regarding this? And, if so, how many choices are there?

 

That's right, and when I listen to music, I listen to WHAT I like, the WAY I like it!

 

I think that the situation has already been determined by the media. CDs are physically more durable than LPs and there is a much larger base of CD players, or other devices—Computers, DVD/Blue-Ray Players, Alarm Clocks—that play CDs. So, going back to "The listening habits of people on the Hoffman forum don't represent the populace. . .", the buying habits of most people don't apply to the Hoffman Forum—most people aren't in the market for a Turntable, most people are in the market for devices that include CD players.

 

Downloads from many sites include album art superior to what you will get on a CD, tracklists, reviews, group history, etc. And being in softcopy, it's all searchable and more useful.

 

And even some people on the Hoffman forum will probably continue to buy, at the very least, used cds. Today, used cds are often a better musical value than itunes. You can play them on any number of devices, rip them to a computer or ipod, and save as an ultimate backup, all for between $1 and, at most $8. It would seem like, at some point, some cds would start to actually increase in value. Not, mind you, anything that sold in the tens of millions, but certain titles or remasters will become collector's items. And, even those versions that go all the way down to $1 per disc will be snapped up by someone.

On the other hand, I believe the so called lp revival may have already crested and are destined to decline in popularity pretty soon. I know, the young people all love vinyl. We will see how that pans out.

 

We're already there.
Average collectible CDs used cost more than average collectible LPs (I'm not talking about extreme cases, Butcher's cover is unbeatable).

 

Yes, downloads can and do provide documentation and pictures.

 

Uh, no, I've outlined several rational reasons for the eventual extinction of the CD, asked for a refutation, and so far I haven't gotten one.

Here are the problems I see with your characterization:

1. Lossless files are not "dried, pulped, flaked" or otherwise inferior substitutes for CD. They are exactly the same thing, without the CD. If they are higher resolution, they are arguably better than a CD.

2. Lossless files are not only accessible through cheap portable devices using earbuds. You can play them through a Squeezebox on any high-end equipment you have.

3. I think that more well-off people are going to be less likely to continue to clutter their homes with physical digital media once the technology makes it superfluous. When you can play any music you own or watch any movie you want with the press of a button on a remote, and get the same quality that you would get with a physical disc, then using the physical disc will be a waste of space and time.

Now, lest you think me a "Soylent-eater", please understand that I eat very little Soylent. My home listening is almost 100% LP's and CDs. I don't own a Squeezebox and don't download music. My opinion isn't formed by my habits (and certainly not by anything Steve Jobs says - I own no Apple technology) but rather by what I see to be the progress of the relevent technology. If CD could do something that downloads could not, then I could seem them continuing to dominate, but I've yet to hear an explanation of what CD can do that a lossless FLAC file cannot, other than clutter up one's house.

 

I don't even understand the people who go on about the artwork and liner notes of CDs. If you cared about liner notes or artwork especially, a 5" CD case isn't what you would be reaching for. The tangible benefits (artwork, liner notes etc) of LPs do not cross over to CDs. I keep seeing this point brought up over and over again, but I'm not buying it. In fact, the album artwork on my iPad for controlling my server is FAR more impressive than any CD case, in both size and quality. This is such a moot point. It's like championing the taste of Outback steakhouse, when Peter Luger's is also on the same street.

 

True, but how many people play CDs on those devices? Very little. Most people don't buy blu-ray players, computers, videogame consoles etc to play CDs.

 

BTW - I hope, I'm not seen as an anti CD person. I buy them to rip to my server. They are insanely cheap from amazon resellers. Even bought a Rotel CDP!

 

I voted CD but both will likely be obsolete 10 years from now except for a few groups of people like us crazy forum members.

 

But, as you demonstrate, a lot of folks rip CDs to their computers. There is an age thing going on here and you're clearly on the leading edge of the movement away from physical media. CDs will continue to be a source for rips 'n' copies longer than LPs will be sources for rips 'n' copies.